What is the Purchasing Managers' Index?The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision makers, analysts, and investors.KEY TAKEAWAYSThe Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing.The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity.The value and movements in the PMI and its components can provide useful insight to business decision makers, market analysts, and investors, and is a leading indicator of overall economic activity in the U.S.How the Purchasing Managers' Index WorksThe PMI is compiled and released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The PMI is based on a monthly survey sent to senior executives at more than 400 companies in 19 primary industries, which are weighted by their contribution to U.S. GDP. The PMI is based on five major survey areas: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment. The ISM weighs each of these survey areas equally. The surveys include questions about business conditions and any changes, whether it be improving, no changes, or deteriorating. The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change. The further away from 50 the greater the level of change. The PMI is calculated as: PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0.5) + (P3 * 0)Where:P1 = percentage of answers reporting an improvement P2 = percentage of answers reporting no change P3 = percentage of answers reporting a deterioration Other companies also produce PMI numbers, including IHS Markit Group, which puts out the PMI for various countries outside the U.S. How the PMI Affects Economic DecisionsThe PMI and relevant data produced monthly by the ISM from its surveys are critical decision-making tools for managers in a variety of roles. An automobile manufacturer, for example, makes production decisions based on the new orders it expects from customers in future months. Those new orders drive management's purchasing decisions about dozens of component parts and raw materials, such as steel and plastic. Existing inventory balances also drive the amount of production the manufacturer needs to complete to fill new orders and to keep some inventory on hand at the end of the month.Suppliers also make decisions based on the PMI. A parts supplier for a manufacturer follows the PMI to estimate the amount of future demand for its products. The supplier also wants to know how much inventory its customers have on hand, which also affects the amount of production its clients must generate. PMI information about supply and demand affects the prices that suppliers can charge. If the manufacturer's new orders are growing, for example, it may raise customer prices and accept price increases from its suppliers. On the other hand, when new orders are declining, the manufacturer may have to lower its prices and demand a lower cost for the parts it purchases. A company can use the PMI to help plan its annual budget, manage staffing levels, and forecast cash flow.Investors can also use the PMI to their advantage because it is a leading indicator of economic conditions. The direction of the trend in the PMI tends to precede changes in the trend in major estimates of economic activity and output, such as the GDP, Industrial Production, and Employment. Paying attention to the value and movements in the PMI can yield profitable foresight into developing trends in the overall economy.
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Every article and website on Forex will point out that Forex is a splendid trading vehicle. Here are some of the reasons given. Some are true and useful and some are untrue or silly.Glamor: Forex is glamorous and sophisticated — the very pinnacle of international high finance.Size and liquidity: Forex is the biggest single market in the world and offers high liquidity — you won’t get stuck with no bids or too wide a bid-offer spread as in thinly traded issues.24-hour trading: When you have a day job, it is nice to have your market open in the evenings and even late Sunday. Something is always being actively traded in Forex.Easy account opening: You can open a trading account with a Forex broker far more easily than with an equity or commodities broker, with far less money, and by disclosing a lot less information about your financial condition. Some brokers let you open an account with a few hundred dollars that you can put on a credit card and start trading the same day.Free platform: Brokers offer very good trading platforms that have the relevant data and technical tools for free. Many regular equity and commodity brokers charge for data and charting.No commissions: In spot retail, you do not pay a commission, just the bid-offer spread. In regular equity and commodities trading, commissions can consume 20-40% of your profits, depending on your gain/loss ratio.These all sound like good reasons to trade Forex. However, just about everything on this list above is either not true or not useful.Glamor: give yourself a break. Securities prices trade for the same reasons and in the same patterns whether they are Apple shares, soybeans, or the Swiss franc. Trading skills, which are really money management and risk management skills, are the same whatever the asset class. There is nothing inherently more “sophisticated” about trading dollar/yen than trading Sony. In fact, trading dollar/yen is more complicated than trading Sony shares, if only because you have two economies to track, not to mention risk factors that do not affect equities, like territorial disputes, oil prices, and other things. Studying the fundamentals of Sony and its markets is no mean task in its own right, but FX fundamentals are broader and deeper. Do not confuse complexity with sophistication.Size and liquidity: while it’s true that if you are trading the pink sheets (over-the-counter equities that are unlisted on a primary exchange), you will probably run into liquidity problems, but the world is chock-full of securities that have liquidity that is more than adequate for your account management. How much liquidity do you need, anyway? If you were trading equities, you might want to scan the universe for names that traded a minimum of a 100,000 shares per day. You would get a list in the US alone of hundreds of names. The oil futures contract trades over $1 billion per day.As for 24-hour trading, plenty of commodities trade on the electronic exchange GLOBEX that is nearly 24 hours per day, and after hours equity trading on the NY Stock Exchange and NASDAQ has been around since 1998. Besides, if you know what entry you want and its associated stop and price target, what do you care when, exactly, it gets executed? Do you really want to watch the screen for hours on end?This brings up another issue — let’s say you are in the Western Hemisphere times zones and have a day job. You want to trade the early Asia market that starts in New Zealand and moves to Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong. Unless you are trading what is for them a local currency (NZD, AUD, SGD, yen), liquidity is not that high. More to the point, trading action tends to be rangey and sideways. We hardly ever get a breakout move (except in the local currencies) in that time period. We see a similar lull during the transition period from Hong Kong to Frankfurt. Middle East trading may offer plenty of liquidity but it hardly ever offers big moves that the savvy trader wants to exploit.As for easy account opening, brokers make it easy for you to open the account because it is easy money for them. The probability of your making high profits from your first trade onward is practically zero. All traders take losses and you will, too — it is the nature of the beast. As soon as you take a loss, the broker wants you to add more money so you can continue trading. Stories abound in the chart rooms about traders who did make gains with these brokers but could not withdraw their funds.Even after the US government raised capital and registration requirements — making US residents off-limits to most foreign brokers — plenty of fly-by-night retail Forex brokers remain. We have central clearing in the primary interbank FX market but no central clearing for retail spot Forex. Most governments do not even try to regulate the retail market. Retail brokers have many tricks to cheat the customer. Probably the most common one is that they do not even place your trade. They know you have a low capital amount and your stop is (say) 10 points. They are willing to bet that your stop will get hit and they will not have to cover the trade from their side. If your target is hit instead, they may say your stop got hit anyway even though you don’t find that price anywhere on a database of prices for the day. This is one of the benefits of futures trading, by the way, compared to spot. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange posts “time and sales” for every blessed trade done and you can prove whether a stop or target was hit. Such proof stands up in a court of law, too.This brings up the no-commission “benefit.” Be sensible here — how does the broker make any money if he does not charge commission? By adding a spread of 2-5 pips to your cost and subtracting it from your closing price. Let’s say you are trading a standard retail amount of $100,000 and paying 3 pips, or $30. The price has to move 3 pips for you to break even, and another 3 to stay even on the exit. You need to make 7 pips minimum to start making a net gain.Now we have to ask the essential question — how much do you intend to make on a $100,000 trade? If you want to day-trade three times per day and your profit target is 20 pips with a stop at 10 pips, you are aiming to make 3 x 20 = 60 pips possible gain or $60/100,000 = 0.06%. If you can do that every day with no losses, on 240 trading days per year you would make $14,400/100,000 = 14.4%. Okay, now consider that to keep the 20 points, you actually have to make 23 points because you are paying the broker 3 of them.What is the average daily range of your currency and how big a piece of it is 23 points?Let’s say your currency is the AUD and it has an average daily range of 80-100 points (actual readings for January-May 2016). You would be seeking to get 23-33% of the daily range in the right direction every day. Ask yourself how realistic that is.To add another dose of reality, consider that you may trade profitably only 51% of the time, in other words, your stop is hit a little less than half the time. You are losing 10 points per trade on about 380 trades per year or $3,600, against a gain of $7,200 for a net gain of roughly $3,600. On a face amount of $100,000, that’s 3.6%. Since you are using leverage and not actually putting up the full $100,000, your percentage return is considerable higher, of course. Nevertheless, it is a great deal of work — trading three times per day, every day, and keeping losses to 49%, for a net gain of only $3,600 per year.If you are a swing trader and put on one position that you hold for several days or even weeks, you are avoiding paying 3 points on every trade, but you have a new expense — the cost of rolling over the contract every day. We will come back to that in another section. For the moment, consider that to make the same $3,600 as the day trader who trades three times per day, you would have to get (say) 36 points but only ten times over the course of the year, net of losses. Because Forex prices are trending, this is actually not that hard to achieve.The broker being paid with spread points has an important implication for your choice of trading strategies — it is more cost-effective to be a swing trader than a day-trader.However, let’s be honest – the real reason that people want to trade Forex is leverage. Leverage is a blessing and a curse. You are in essence borrowing most of the face amount of the $100,000. In some place, you can borrow virtually all of it, but in the USA, leverage is limited to 50 times since October 2010. That means if you want to trade one lot worth $100,000, you need to put down $2,000 as your initial margin ($100,000 divided by 50). If you first trade goes against you and you take a loss, you have to top it up with more money. In practice, your first trade should be backed by the $2,000 required under the regulations plus the amount you could lose if your stop is hit (plus maybe a little extra), or at least $2,500.But the point here is not how much you should fund your first account — it’s why the broker is willing to lend you $97,500 interest-free in the first place. The first reason is that the broker expects you to fail. He expects that more than half your trades will be stopped and they will be stopped right away, at the beginning of your trading career. The broker may not have placed your trade onward with a counterparty in the first place, so if your loss was (say) $250, he gets to keep all of it. Some brokers have been accused of “hunting stops” in their own account specifically to hit the stops of small traders.The second reason he is lending you this huge amount of money interest-free is that he is earning 3 points per lot per side, or roughly $6 per round turn. On the three-trades per day described above, that is $4,320, or 4.43% on $97,500. Since the broker can borrow the $97,500 at a rate less than 4.43%, he gets to keep the difference. But in practice, he usually doesn’t need to borrow the $97,000 at all in the first place — the broker is being extended credit free or very cheaply by the banks and brokers where he is passing on your trades. In essence, they give the broker free or cheap credit to drive volume to their trading desks. Bottom line, the broker is motivated to get and to keep your trading business, and the more day-trading you do, the better he likes it, because of that $3 per side profit he is making.
One day you will see the euro quoted at 1.3832 and nine days later, it is 1.3296. (These price quotes are the high on 2013-10-25 to the low on 2013-11-07.) A change in price by 536 points is not abnormal. Later we will talk about what is normal and how we know what is normal, but for the moment, you need to accept that Forex prices can move very far, very fast.What is behind the change? The obvious answer is that euro traders were in the process of changing their minds about the value of either the euro or the value of the dollar. Actually, since no one knows or can even guess what true value might be, the euro trader is guessing what others will think in the future about the appropriate price of the euro or the dollar. If the euro trader is a seller today at 1.3832, it is because he interprets some piece of data or news unfavorable to the euro that will make others not willing to pay as much for it as today’s price. The future may be two minutes, two days or two weeks, but the skill of the trader lies in assigning a probability to the interpretation of the data or news by the rest of the market.In other words, the euro trader is reading their minds about future demand for euros.This sounds ridiculous but it is an accurate way of describing the process. There are three components to the euro trader’s guess.Component One: The ChartThe euro had become “overbought.” This term refers to a majority of euro traders believing the euro should go higher and having already built a big long position. The chart reader does not care whether the rest of the market is correct. He sees that in terms of the upmove that has already taken place, the other traders are overinvested in the bullish point of view.If everyone has already bought the euro and they are out of cash or credit to increase their holdings, there’s nobody left to buy. The price must fall as the holders unload their positions in order to get cash to put on new trades. The chart reader uses any of several technical indicators to identify when the market is overinvested or overbought. The most commonly used indicator is the relative strength index or RSI. Another is the stochastic oscillator.It is important to note that in Forex, we do not have volume figures like the volume available in equity trading. If we had volume, we could see that as the price is rising, volume is failing to keep pace proportionately. A divergence between rising prices and falling volume is a classic technique in equities to gauge when a security is becoming overbought. Alas, in Forex, we do not have volume as a tool.Component Two: The EconomicsThe only reason to buy something is to use it or to sell it later for a higher price. While the Forex trader will not actually use euros in the sense of spending them on goods and services, he anticipates that others will want to use the euro’s purchasing power to buy stuff, not only socks and haircuts but also securities denominated in euros. Therefore, Forex traders follow the macroeconomics and news stories pertaining to the relative purchasing power of the euro vs. the dollar, including inflation (or deflation), wages increases, the robustness of the economy, and so on. At any one time, the market as a whole has a consensus view of which economies are growing and how fast, and which economies have immediate economic problems that the government and specifically the central bank should be addressing. As a rule, traders’ economic understanding is oversimplified and even crude, and usually boiled down to a catchy one or two-word descriptor, but it does not pay to be snobbish about the relative lack of sophistication of these views—they move markets.Component Three: The NewsThe macroeconomics form the background against which traders judge news. The single most important piece of news is a change in interest rates or other stimulus/contraction by a central bank. A good example is the interest rate decision by the European Central bank (ECB) on November 7, 2013. Because inflation had fallen to a new low and there was fear of Japanese-style deflation, the consensus of Forex commentators was that the ECB would cut rates or impose negative rates on bank deposits to encourage banks to lend more. Accordingly, the euro was on a sharp falling trajectory. However, the ECB declined to cut rates and the euro reversed on the same day, rising nearly to the level it started eight days earlier.ECB announcement influences EUR/USD in November 2013 — daily chart.You would be hard-pressed to say the euro reversed into an upmove because traders were thinking about purchasing power parity or other relative economic data — here the move was due to the ECB rate decision, made a little stronger because the market’s expectations were proved wrong.
The oldest ways of chart analysis had to work in the days before computers (B.C.). There’s no reason they shouldn’t work now. Here’s a look at peaks and troughs, a classic form of chart analysis that worked B.C. and work now.
Divergence, which is a term that technicians use when two or more averages or indices fail to show confirming trends, is one of the mainstays of technical analysis. Here’s a new way to use oscillators and divergence as well as methods to locate entry levels during a trend.
by Bruce Babcock
The basics of trading with candlesticks charts by John H. Forman.